Simulating an epidemic

March 27, 2020

Experiments with toy SIR models Help fund future projects: https://www.patreon.com/3blue1brown

An equally valuable form of support is to simply share some of the videos. Special thanks to these supporters: http://3b1b.co/sir-thanks

Home page: https://www.3blue1brown.com

Awesome fan-made interactives: https://prajwalsouza.github.io/Experiments/Epidemic-Simulation.html

https://learningsim.itch.io/pandemic-spread-simulation

Simulations by Harry Stevens at the Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Simulations by Kevin Simler at Melting Asphalt: https://meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/

Excellent visualization of each country’s current growth from Minutephysics and Aatish Bhatia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc

Another good interactive to see what effect various parameters have on the shape of the curve: http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

If you want to hear a mathematician/epidemiologist’s summary of COVID-19, I found this MSRI talk very worthwhile: https://youtu.be/MZ957qhzcjI

Marcel Salathé on Contact Tracing: https://twitter.com/marcelsalathe/status/1242430736944201730

Thanks to these viewers for their contributions to translations Hebrew: Omer Tuchfeld

These animations are made using manim, a scrappy open-source python library: https://github.com/3b1b/manim

Code for this video: https://github.com/3b1b/videos/blob/master/_2020/sir.py

Honestly, given that the code for that video is meant for demo purposes, and not meant to reflect the true data of COVID-19, if you want to apply these ideas to the current situation I’d recommend looking for more professional epidemiological modeling tools that are less centered around animations and pedagogy and more focused on accurate predictions. For example, the Institute for Disease Modeling has a lot of models free for people to look at and play with.

Opening music: Candlepower by Chris Zabriskie is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/))

Source: http://chriszabriskie.com/divider/

Artist: http://chriszabriskie.com/

Other music by Vincent Rubinetti. Download the music on Bandcamp: https://vincerubinetti.bandcamp.com/album/the-music-of-3blue1brown

Stream the music on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/album/1dVyjwS8FBqXhRunaG5W5u

If you want to contribute translated subtitles or to help review those that have already been made by others and need approval, you can click the gear icon in the video and go to subtitles/cc, then “add subtitles/cc”. I really appreciate those who do this, as it helps make the lessons accessible to more people.

3blue1brown is a channel about animating math, in all senses of the word animate. And you know the drill with YouTube, if you want to stay posted on new videos, subscribe: http://3b1b.co/subscribe

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